The staying power of Eurosceptic voter support

In the run-up to the May 2014 European Parliamentary elections, we examined whether support for Eurosceptic parties reflected a one-off protest or a more lasting voter alignment. Our analysis found shared patterns across voters’ demographics, cultural values, political views and outlook on life. Motivaction conducted the wider survey in December 2013 and January 2014 as part of the Glocalities project; we analysed results from five European countries. This is a profile of voters at that time, not a forecast of election results. Read more about how Europe's Eurosceptics more united than many think here.

Six parties, five countries

For this analysis, we focused on the voter bases of five right-wing Eurosceptic parties and, separately, Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S). The table shows their latest national election results and their 2009 European Parliamentary election results, as listed in the study.

¹ The percentage refers to the Dutch-language group vote.

Our five-country analysis included 10,755 respondents aged 18–65. We compared the general population with 554 right-wing Eurosceptic voters: 117 National Front voters, 61 Northern League voters, 128 PVV voters, 104 Flemish Interest voters and 144 people intending to vote for UKIP. We also analysed 388 M5S voters separately. We used recalled votes in the most recent national elections, except for UKIP, where we used voting intention because the last UK election had been in 2010.

A working-class identification and economic pressure

We found that Eurosceptic voters tended to be older than 45, male and married. They appeared across income and employment groups, and both lower- and higher-educated voters were represented. They were more likely to identify with the working class and to report difficulty making ends meet, pointing to the economic pressures many in this group were experiencing.

Feeling let down and mistrustful

Our analysis shows lower trust among Eurosceptic voters, particularly in political institutions. They were also more likely to feel let down by society and less happy with life overall. The figures below compare Eurosceptic and non-Eurosceptic voters.

Seeking security and structure

We found stronger preferences for order, predictability and traditional values among Eurosceptic voters. They more often said that life was changing too fast and that they wanted it to be organised and predictable. They also watched more television on average.

Immigration and integration, and crime and safety, stood out as concerns for these voters. Environmental concerns and employment ranked lower than among non-Eurosceptic voters. We also saw greater concern about banking bonuses, high salaries and government bailouts.

Five Star Movement voters: moderate, modern and disillusioned

Our separate analysis of M5S voters showed a younger and more idealistic group than the right-wing Eurosceptic voters. They were more engaged with social media and more likely to name Nelson Mandela as an appealing figure. Their priorities also differed: employment and the environment ranked higher for M5S voters, while right-wing Eurosceptic voters were more focused on immigration and crime.

Our findings point to a shared sense of disillusionment with society and political leadership, despite differences between these voter groups. We see a challenge for mainstream parties in responding credibly to voters’ concerns about security and predictability, and in re-engaging more moderate voters who have turned away from the EU.